Democrats are increasingly positioned to mount a credible bid for control of not only the House, but also the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections. Just a year ago, this possibility was quietly discussed in political circles and largely dismissed as improbable. That perception has since shifted, though skepticism remains. In the 2026 cycle, several Senate seats are considered competitive, most of them currently held by Republicans. This fall’s elections could prove to be a key test for President Trump’s post-midterm agenda.
Nebraska Senate Race: Pete Ricketts* & Dan Osborn
In Nebraska, Republicans hold the seat currently occupied by Pete Ricketts, who faces a challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn. This race may serve as a blueprint for how Democrats compete in what many Dems consider the deeply conservative Midwest. Is it that the Midwest is truly that conservative or do they feel like their voices are not being heard?
Rather than fielding a traditional Democratic nominee, national Democrats have largely rallied behind Osborn, a candidate whose background and messaging align more closely with the state’s constituents. His platform reflects many priorities associated with the Democratic Party, but his independent positioning allows him to connect with voters who might otherwise reject a partisan label.
If successful, this approach could reshape how Democrats contest races in similar states. A victory by Osborn would suggest that candidate identity and relatability can, in some cases, outweigh party affiliation. It would also introduce a more unpredictable voting pattern in the Senate. Osborn would likely not align consistently with Democrats on every issue, potentially emerging as a less rigid version of Joe Manchin. Unsurprisingly, many Democrats oppose this approach and are hesitant to shift their strategy to attract independent voters in other states, but that is another discussion.
As of March 2026, William Forbes could complicate Osborn’s path to victory, with many people viewing his candidacy as a Republican plant in the Democratic primary. Democrats have countered by backing their own candidate in the Democratic primary, Cindy Burbank, with the expectation that she will later withdraw and consolidate support behind Osborn. As the primary approaches, this contest may bring out some of the more contentious dynamics in American politics.
Osborn is not new to Nebraska voters. In 2024, he challenged incumbent Deb Fischer for the same seat, ultimately losing by 6.6 percentage points. For a relatively unknown independent candidate in a reliably Republican state, that performance was notable and signaled that Osborn was a true competitor.
Ricketts, by contrast, entered the Senate through appointment before securing the seat outright in a 2024 special election. He defeated Democratic challenger Preston Love Jr. by more than 25 percentage points, underscoring the state’s Republican majority.
Still, early indicators suggest a tightening race. Recent polling by Lake Research Partners in December 2025 found Ricketts leading Osborn by just one percentage point, a margin that falls within the typical margin of error.
Whether or not Osborn ultimately prevails, his candidacy is already influencing the national conversation. If he falls short, it is unlikely to be the last time voters hear his name.